An ANP-Multi-Criteria Assessment of Factors Associated with Coastal Sprawling in a Developing Economy

Abstract

The needs and desires of people around the world are diverse, particularly, with distinguishing characteristics from one economic environment to another, and when it comes to living in and enjoying coastal areas. Moreover, coastal zones are experiencing significant changes over time, including encroachment, changes in land use, and alterations to the physical environment, With consequential environmental issues, social exclusion, and segregation. An example of this coastal urbanization is Banana Island in Ikoyi, Lagos State. However, there are insufficient studies identifying the multi-faced driving factors for the causes of these coastal changes and the best ways to address them, especially in the context of a developing economy. This study aimed at identifying the drivers of coastal sprawling in Banana Island for a sustainable coastal community. The study uses a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) approach that is based on the Analytic Network Process (ANP) model commonly used in literature. The reviewed factors were further adjudged by relevant stakeholders through three rounds of Delphi process till a consensus was reached. The study found that the environmental factor was the most important, accounting for over 40% of the relative weight of contribution to the coastal sprawling in Banana Island. In comparison, this is followed by engineering (26%), economics (19%), and social factors (16%). The findings of this study can help decision-makers address coastal sprawl and engage with different groups interested in the greater future of Banana Island and other coastal areas.